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52m US military seizes Iranian vessel in Gulf of Oman amid rising tensions
Prediction Markets
News mapped to markets. Live odds updated every 10 minutes.
52m US military seizes Iranian vessel in Gulf of Oman amid rising tensions
▼ Strait of hormuz ship transit april
29% (was 36%, ▼7¢ in 52m)
⚡ Gulf state military action against Iran: 6% FLAT
NO ▲7¢
Strait of hormuz ship transit april
2 articles
Developing
29%
▼7¢
⚡ Gulf state military action against Iran 6% FLAT
52m ✓ 22h UK raises Strait of Hormuz threat level to critical amid security risks
NO ▲6¢
Gulf state military action against Iran
1 article
Developing
29%
▼6¢
✓ 1239m US military seizes Iranian vessel in Gulf of Oman, escalating regional tensions
NO ▲6¢
US-Iran ceasefire end
1 article
Developing
15%
▼6¢
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 28% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran peace deal 20% FLAT
1h US announces talks in Islamabad; Iran’s attendance unconfirmed
NO ▲6¢
Iran enriched uranium surrender
2 articles
Developing
15%
▼6¢
⚡ Trump's agreement to Iranian demands in april 48% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran permanent peace deal 20% FLAT
✓ 31h Pakistan PM Sharif discusses peace with Iran’s Pezeshkian amid US tensions
2h Trump threatens Iran’s power plants, bridges amid military tensions
NO ▲6¢
US-Iran ceasefire
1 article
Developing
15%
▼6¢
⚡ US-Iran peace deal 20% FLAT
1h US energy chief sees positive resolution in Iran talks, ceasefire possible by April 30
YES ▲6¢
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
1 article
· 2h ago
16%
▲6¢
2h US deploys sea drones for mine clearance in Strait of Hormuz
YES ▲6¢
Warships through the strait of hormuz
1 article
· 2h ago
16%
▲6¢
⚡ Ships transit the strait of hormuz by april 22% FLAT
2h UK declares critical maritime threat level for Gulf and Strait of Hormuz
NO ▲5¢
Trump's end of military operations against Iran
1 article
Developing
15%
▼5¢
⚡ US-Iran permanent peace deal 20% FLAT
1h Trump excluded from tactical talks after US jet downed in Iran
YES ▲5¢
What will Trump post this week?
1 article
· 2h ago
24%
▲5¢
⚡ Diplomatic meetings with Iran 13% FLAT
✓ 22h Iran accuses Trump of deception amid US-Iran ceasefire talks
NO ▲5¢
US-Iran permanent peace deal
1 article
· 2h ago
15%
▼5¢
⚡ Iran enriched uranium surrender 31% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire extension 64% FLAT
2h Iran rejects US talks, impacting peace deal and uranium markets
NO ▲4¢
Iran diplomatic meetings
1 article
Developing
15%
▼4¢
⚡ US-Iran permanent peace deal 20% FLAT
54m Tehran denies pressure, Hormuz blockade lift odds fall sharply
NO ▲4¢
Trump Iran demands (april)
1 article
Developing
31%
▼4¢
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 28% FLAT
⚡ Iranian demands Trump will agree to in april 48% FLAT
1h US-Iran draft proposes 15-year uranium enrichment suspension
NO ▲3¢
Iran uranium enrichment agreement
3 articles
Developing
36%
▼3¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 38% FLAT
⚡ Iranian demands Trump will agree to in april 48% FLAT
50m US-Iran talks focus on uranium enrichment limits, sanctions relief
2h Iran agrees to hand over enriched uranium stockpile ahead of Islamabad talks
2h Fire at Iranian shipbuilding factory amid US-Israeli campaign
NO ▲2¢
Strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal
3 articles
Developing
38%
▼2¢
⚡ Iranian demands Trump will agree to in april 48% FLAT
38m US attacks Iranian ship Touska, Strait of Hormuz traffic market drops 14 points
✓ 347m Trump threatens Iran infrastructure, peace deal odds plummet
52m US Marines board Iranian ship amid Strait of Hormuz blockade enforcement
YES ▲1¢
Next prime minister of bulgaria
2 articles
Developing
97%
▲1¢
⚡ Next prime minister of bulgaria (2026) 91% FLAT
15m New Bulgarian coalition claims victory, Radev’s path to PM requires talks
✓ 235m Rumen Radev leads exit polls in Bulgaria, eyes prime minister role
NO ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
Developing
3%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire end 16% FLAT
⚡ Diplomatic meetings with Iran 13% FLAT
22m Iran shuts Strait of Hormuz, exits talks, accuses US of attack plans
NO ▲1¢
US-Iran ceasefire extensions
1 article
Developing
58%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire extension 64% FLAT
27m Pakistan mediates US-Iran talks as ceasefire extension doubts grow
NO ▲1¢
Trump military operations against Iran
1 article
Developing
9%
▼1¢
⚡ Countries sending warships through hormuz 8% FLAT
✓ 41h Iran fires warning shots at French ship in Strait of Hormuz
NO ▲1¢
US escorts through hormuz
1 article
Developing
16%
▼1¢
⚡ Warships through the strait of hormuz 8% FLAT
⚡ Ships transit strait of hormuz (april 13-19) 0% FLAT
✓ 21h Zero oil tankers pass through Strait of Hormuz in historic shutdown
YES ▲1¢
Karoline leavitt's press briefing statements
1 article
Developing
3%
▲1¢
✓ 21h Iran halts diplomatic talks with Pakistan, stalling US-Iran negotiations
YES ▲1¢
White house posts april 2026
1 article
Developing
3%
▲1¢
✓ 21h Trump claims US-Iran deal concept finalized, impacting meeting odds
Likely NO
Iran uranium surrender
1 article
Developing
29%
▼0¢
5m Iran uranium surrender faces unprecedented US challenge by April 2026: WSJ
Likely NO
Israel military action against Iran
3 articles
Developing
16%
▼0¢
9m US-Israel war on Iran disrupts energy, claims thousands of lives
2h Israel and US engaged in direct warfare with Iran since February 28
✓ 32h UK chief rabbi warns of rising antisemitic attacks linked to Iranian proxies
Likely NO
Starmer out timing predictions
1 article
Developing
61%
▼0¢
⚡ Starmer out prediction markets 36% FLAT
10m Starmer faces Commons showdown over Mandelson vetting scandal
Likely NO
Iran leadership status
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 3% FLAT
11m Iran postpones Khamenei burial amid airstrike fears
Likely NO
Trump's agreement to Iranian demands in april
1 article
Developing
15%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire announcement 18% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran permanent peace deal 20% FLAT
12m Iran accuses US of ceasefire violation with naval blockade
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Reza pahlavi enter Iran 4% FLAT
18m Iran unable to bury Khamenei 50 days after death amid leadership crisis
Likely NO
Ships transit strait of hormuz (april 13-19)
6 articles
Developing
27%
▼0¢
⚡ Ships transit the strait of hormuz by april 22% FLAT
21m Iran fires on tankers as US plans to board Iran-linked vessels in Hormuz
46m Iran advances bill to control Strait of Hormuz, impacting shipping transit
✓ 750m US Navy seizes Iranian ship in Strait of Hormuz amid military escalation
Likely NO
S&P 500 movement on april 13
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price hit in april 3% FLAT
23m Iran tensions impact S&P 500, Bitcoin amid market volatility concerns
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ships transit strait of hormuz (april 13-19) 0% FLAT
25m US Navy intercepts Iranian ship TOUSKA amid ongoing blockade enforcement
Likely NO
Israel military action against beirut
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
✓ 21h Israeli military expands control in southern Lebanon, signaling prolonged presence
Likely NO
Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire 100% FLAT
⚡ Israel suspension of lebanon offensive 100% FLAT
1h Iran backs ceasefire to protect Hezbollah, expert claims
2h Israel vows to demolish Hezbollah-linked homes in Lebanon amid ceasefire tension
Likely NO
Ethereum price in 2026
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price above on april 19 100% FLAT
1h KelpDAO exploit causes $10.5B drop in DeFi TVL, AAVE suspends rsETH markets
Likely NO
What price will Bitcoin hit in april
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price in april 100% FLAT
2h Bitcoin falls below $75K as US-Iran peace talks collapse
Likely YES
ECB interest rates april 2026
1 article
Developing
3%
⚡ ECB interest rates predictions for april 2026 0% FLAT
1m Germany convenes national security council over energy crisis