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2h Israel, Lebanon agree to US-brokered ceasefire; Hezbollah exclusion raises doubts
Prediction Markets
News mapped to markets. Live odds updated every 10 minutes.
2h Israel, Lebanon agree to US-brokered ceasefire; Hezbollah exclusion raises doubts
▲ Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire
41% (was 35%, ▲6¢ in 2h)
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire: 38% FLAT · Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire: 100% FLAT
YES ▲6¢
Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire
1 article
· 2h ago
41%
▲6¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 38% FLAT
⚡ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire 100% FLAT
2h 
YES ▲5¢
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
2 articles
Developing
8%
▲5¢
32m Iran signals potential threat to Bab el-Mandeb strait amid missile arsenal boost
1h US helicopter patrols as naval blockade on Iranian ports escalates
YES ▲4¢
Ships transit strait of hormuz (april 13-19)
1 article
· 2h ago
26%
▲4¢
⚡ Ships transit the strait of hormuz by april 22% FLAT
2h Iranian gunboats deter shipping in Strait of Hormuz ahead of ceasefire expiry
NO ▲3¢
US-Iran peace deal
1 article
Developing
23%
▼3¢
1h Iranian forces maintain readiness amid US peace talks, says parliament speaker
YES ▲3¢
Strait of hormuz ship transit april
1 article
Developing
26%
▲3¢
1h Iran attacks Indian-flagged vessel in Strait of Hormuz, raising tensions
YES ▲2¢
US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations
5 articles
Developing
41%
▲2¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 38% FLAT
⚡ Bank of japan decision in april 2026 0% FLAT
37m US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 unlikely as conflict costs rise
1h US VP Vance to lead Iran talks in Pakistan amid military buildup
1h VP Vance to lead US delegation in Iran talks in Pakistan
YES ▲2¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
2 articles
Developing
8%
▲2¢
⚡ Warships through the strait of hormuz 8% FLAT
⚡ US blockade of hormuz 78% FLAT
1h Iran mocks EU diplomat’s call to reopen Strait of Hormuz amid tensions
✓ 21h Iran reasserts control over Strait of Hormuz amid US naval blockade
NO ▲2¢
Netanyahu's tenure
2 articles
Developing
8%
▼2¢
1h UK Jewish sites attacked by group with Iranian ties amid rising tensions
1h Haaretz report on Gaza atrocities adds pressure on Netanyahu’s political future
YES ▲2¢
Iran uranium enrichment agreement
1 article
Developing
41%
▲2¢
⚡ US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations 4% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 38% FLAT
✓ 31h Trump warns Iran of military escalation if no deal reached by April 30
YES ▲1¢
Military action against Iran
1 article
Developing
71%
▲1¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire extension 64% FLAT
7m President vows all means to end Middle East conflict amid ceasefire talks
YES ▲1¢
US-Iran ceasefire extension
1 article
Developing
71%
▲1¢
8m US C-17s land in Cyprus as Iran ceasefire talks falter
NO ▲1¢
US-Iran ceasefire
2 articles
Developing
8%
▼1¢
⚡ US blockade of hormuz 78% FLAT
✓ 212m Iran refuses talks amid US naval blockade, closing diplomatic channel
34m Trump, Iran talks to continue in Islamabad tomorrow amid ceasefire hopes
NO ▲1¢
US-Iran ceasefire announcement
2 articles
Developing
23%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran permanent peace deal 20% FLAT
⚡ Iranian demands Trump will agree to in april 48% FLAT
✓ 231m Trump threatens to destroy Iran’s infrastructure if talks fail
37m Iran accuses US of ceasefire violation with port blockade
YES ▲1¢
US-Iran permanent peace deal
2 articles
Developing
23%
▲1¢
⚡ Iranian demands Trump agreement 48% FLAT
⚡ Iran peace deals 20% FLAT
36m Trump’s comments, Vance’s absence impact US-Iran peace deal prospects
✓ 91h Trump announces new US-Iran talks, threatens infrastructure strike
YES ▲1¢
US-Iran ceasefire end
2 articles
Developing
71%
▲1¢
⚡ Diplomatic meetings with Iran 13% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire extension 64% FLAT
✓ 91h Trump sends envoys to Pakistan for Iran talks before ceasefire deadline
✓ 82h Trump accuses Iran of ceasefire violation, raising stakes for April 21 deadline
NO ▲1¢
Kharg island oil terminal attack
1 article
Developing
4%
▼1¢
1h Trump nixed Kharg Island invasion over casualty fears: report
Likely NO
Countries sending warships through hormuz
1 article
Developing
9%
▼0¢
6m Tui Cruises ships transit Strait of Hormuz amid 2026 Iran war
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in april 2026
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
23m Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, impacting oil markets amid supply concerns
Likely NO
US escorts through hormuz
2 articles
Developing
19%
▼0¢
25m Iran halts oil flow through Strait of Hormuz, disrupting 20% of global supply
39m No ships cross Strait of Hormuz as Iran tightens control
Likely NO
Iranian demands Trump agreement
3 articles
Developing
23%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran permanent peace deal 20% FLAT
⚡ Iran peace deals 20% FLAT
✓ 335m Trump, Waltz clash over JD Vance’s role in Iran talks amid security concerns
45m Trump criticizes Spain over NATO spending, fueling US withdrawal speculation
✓ 32h Trump threatens Iran with military action over stalled negotiations
Likely NO
What will Trump post this week?
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire announcement 18% FLAT
41m Iran fires on tankers in Strait of Hormuz, Trump threatens retaliation
1h Trump maintains hardline stance, dims hope for Iran oil sanction relief
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi entry into Iran
1 article
Developing
7%
▼0¢
47m US to seize Iran-linked ships, escalating tensions with Tehran
Likely NO
Trump's military operations in Iran
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations 4% FLAT
53m US-Israel military pressure on Iran to continue, says Energy Secretary
Likely NO
Trump military operations against Iran
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
58m IDF unveils forward defense line in southern Lebanon, escalating operations
Likely NO
Starmer out timing predictions
1 article
Developing
62%
▼0¢
58m Starmer would have blocked Mandelson as UK ambassador over vetting issues
Likely NO
Ethereum price in 2026
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
1h AAVE TVL drops $6B after $290M KelpDAO exploit, Ethereum sentiment bearish
Likely NO
Trump acquiring greenland
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
1h Trump allies exploit Greenland’s colonial past to boost US influence
Likely NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Israel’s actions in Lebanon may lead to permanent security zone, warns analyst
Likely NO
Ships transit the strait of hormuz by april
1 article
Developing
7%
▼0¢
⚡ US escorts through hormuz 22% FLAT
1h US Navy deploys uncrewed vehicles to clear mines in Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Israel-lebanon diplomatic meeting
1 article
Developing
8%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran surrender enriched uranium 31% FLAT
1h Israel threatens “full force” in Lebanon amid tensions with Hezbollah
Likely NO
Trump weekly posts
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump public insults by april 2026 100% FLAT
✓ 21h Trump’s AI Jesus post, pope feud stir controversy amid profanity speculation
Likely NO
Karoline leavitt's press briefing statements
1 article
· 2h ago
71%
▼0¢
✓ 112h US representatives head to Islamabad for Iran ceasefire talks
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal
1 article
· 2h ago
0%
▼0¢
2h Iran accuses EU of maritime law violations amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
Likely NO
S&P 500 prediction for april 14
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, fires on ships, impacting S&P 500 outlook
Likely NO
Trump Iran demands (april)
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
2h Iranian president’s nuclear stance strains US negotiation efforts