IXIC: Nasdaq Futures Surge Over 3% as Trump and Iran Agree on Two-Week Ceasefire

An hour before the deadline was set to expire, US President Trump said Iran has agreed to cease attacks and allow "safe passage" of ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

🕊️ One Truth Social Post

• Nasdaq IXIC futures climbed 3.4% while Dow Jones DJI futures surged over 1,000 points, or 2.3%, and S&P 500 SPX futures added 2.5%.
• The huge wave of buying came after Trump posted on Truth Social that he was suspending attacks on Iran for two weeks, citing a 10-point proposal from Tehran as a “workable basis for negotiation”. The post went up less than an hour before his 8 p.m. ET deadline was set to expire.
• Iran's Supreme National Security Council confirmed it had agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks contingent on a full halt to attacks, with transit to be coordinated through Iran's Armed Forces. Israel confirmed its agreement to the ceasefire as well.
• For the first time since the conflict began five weeks ago, all three parties are publicly aligned on the same pause. And the reactions arrived.
• West Texas Intermediate crude tumbled approximately 14% to $97 a barrel while Brent dropped more than 12% to $95.55, the largest single-session percentage declines in oil since the conflict began.

🛢️ Weeks of Fear Unwinding

• The two-week ceasefire agreement means the supply relief is conditional and temporary. Tankers coordinating transit with Iran's Armed Forces is a managed reopening rather than a free and unrestricted waterway.
• For every asset class that has been trading the war premium for five weeks, the ceasefire announcement is a simultaneous unwind trigger.
• Airlines, industrials, and consumer stocks that were hammered by energy cost fears get relief. Rate cut expectations, which collapsed from 96% probability to near zero, begin recovering as the inflation trajectory from oil is expected to improve.

📅 Permanent Deal in the Works

• Trump described Iran's 10-point proposal as “a workable basis for negotiation”, not an accepted framework, meaning the hard work of turning a two-week pause into a permanent agreement begins immediately.
• Markets will be watching three things over the next fourteen days: whether tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz actually normalizes to pre-conflict levels (think 80 to 130 ships a day from 10), whether the negotiating framework produces a durable agreement, and whether oil continues to retreat toward the $65 to $70 range.
• For equity investors who have endured the battering over the past few weeks, Wednesday's futures surge is the most unambiguous positive catalyst of the entire conflict period.
• The question is whether it marks the beginning of a sustained recovery or another relief rally that fails to sustain momentum.